Updates forecasts for BofA Global Research's currency, UBS Global Research's UK and global GDP, J.P. Morgan's China GDP, Deutsche Bank's U.S. and China GDP and S&P 500 target, Goldman Sachs' headline CPI and euro area GDP and Citigroup's core PCE; Adds background in paragraph 2 and updates paragraph under U.S. inflation
Sept 16 (Reuters) - Brokerages have raised their year-end targets for U.S. stocks benchmark S&P 500 .SPX amid rising expectations for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates at the Sept. 17-18 meeting.
Analysts expect the U.S. central bank will begin its easing cycle on Wednesday with a quarter-percentage-point move, though markets are pricing in a good chance it could be a half-percentage-point cut to prevent further labor market softening.
Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:
S&P 500 target |
US 10-year yield target |
EUR/USD |
USD/JPY |
USD/CNY |
|
Goldman Sachs |
5,600 |
4.25% |
1.08 |
150 |
7.20 |
Morgan Stanley |
5,400(for June 2025) |
1 |
140 |
7.5 |
|
UBS Global Wealth Management* |
5,200 |
3.85% |
1.09 |
148 |
7.25 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute |
5,300-5,500 |
3.75%-4.25% |
1.06-1.10 |
156-160 |
|
Barclays |
5,600 |
4.25% |
1.09 |
145 |
7.20 |
J.P. Morgan |
4,200 |
3.75% |
1.13 |
146 |
7.25 |
BofA Global Research |
5,400 |
3.75% |
1.12 |
151 |
7.38 |
Deutsche Bank |
5,750 |
4.60% |
1.07 |
135 |
|
Citigroup |
5,600 |
4.20% |
1.02 |
135 |
7.25 |
HSBC |
5,400 |
3.00% |
1.05 |
145 |
7.10 |
Oppenheimer |
5,900 |
||||
UBS Global Research* |
5,600 |
4.0% |
1.12 |
145 |
7.10 |
Evercore ISI |
6,000 |
||||
RBC |
5,700 |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
----
U.S. INFLATION
U.S. consumer prices rose slightly in August, but underlying inflation showed some stickiness amid higher costs for housing and other services.
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024) |
||
Headline CPI |
Core PCE |
|
Goldman Sachs |
2.6% |
2.6% |
Morgan Stanley |
2.10% |
2.70% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute |
3.0% |
2.60% |
Barclays |
2.9% |
2.6% |
J.P.Morgan |
2.50% |
2.50% |
BofA Global Research |
3.5% |
2.8% |
Deutsche Bank |
3.10% |
|
Citigroup |
2.0% |
2.7% |
HSBC |
3.4% |
|
-----
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 |
||||||
GLOBAL |
U.S. |
CHINA |
EURO AREA |
UK |
INDIA |
|
Goldman Sachs |
2.7% |
2.8% |
4.9% |
0.7% |
1.1% |
6.9% |
Morgan Stanley |
2.8% |
1.9% |
4.2% |
0.5% |
-0.1% |
6.4% |
UBS Global Wealth Management* |
3.1% |
2.4% |
4.9% |
0.6% |
0.2% |
7.0% |
Barclays |
2.6% |
1.2% |
5.0% |
0.3% |
1.1% |
6.2% |
J.P.Morgan |
2.6% |
2.3% |
4.6% |
0.8% |
1.0% |
6.5% |
BofA Global Research |
3.2% |
2.7% |
5.0% |
0.7% |
1.1% |
7.6% |
Deutsche Bank |
3.2% |
2.7% |
4.9% |
0.9% |
1.2% |
7.0% |
Citigroup |
2.4% |
2.0% |
4.8% |
0.7% |
1.0% |
7.3% |
HSBC |
2.6% |
2.3% |
4.9% |
0.5% |
0.4% |
6.3% |
UBS Global Research* |
3.1% |
2.5% |
4.6% |
0.6% |
1.1% |
7.0% |
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Janane Venkatraman, Saumyadeb Chakrabarty, Arun Koyyur, Sriraj Kalluvila, Vijay Kishore and Maju Samuel)