By Naveen Thukral
SINGAPORE, Sept 13 (Reuters) - A rally in global cocoa prices to a record high is driving rapid expansion in plantation of the chocolate-making ingredient across South America, with production likely to climb to an all-time high in the coming year, a senior trader said on Friday.
Global cocoa prices CCc2 roughly tripled this year to an all-time high by April after adverse weather, bean disease, smuggling and reduced plantations in favour of illegal gold mining cut production in top producers Ivory Coast and Ghana.
But output in South American cocoa producing countries, led by Ecuador, is estimated to climb to an all-time high of 1.1 million metric tons in the year to September 2025, said Alberto Nacer, vice president, softs commodities at broker StoneX SNEX.O.
Farmers in Ecuador, which is Latin America's biggest cocoa producer, are replacing banana and palm trees with high-yielding cocoa plantations, he told Reuters on the sidelines of an industry conference in Singapore.
"You have high yielding trees and if you have proper farms, meaning you have planted your trees at the correct density... applying good fertilizers... irrigating and pruning regularly."
"If you have all these conditions, you're going to have a cocoa farm that is going to produce 2,000 kilos/year, per hectare."
He said this compared with 350 kgs per year from some smaller and older plantations.
The cocoa market is facing a third successive year of deficit, with lower output in Ivory Coast and Ghana, which account for more than 60% of the world supply.
The global cocoa stocks-to-grinding ratio has dropped to its lowest in almost 50 years amid a steep decline in output.
Cocoa Prices CCc2 have eased from record highs of around $11,700 per ton in April, but are still up 70% this year.
"Cocoa plantations that maybe give around 350 kgs per hectare, which is very low, are being taken down to plant the varieties," Nacer said.
Other cocoa producers in South America include Brazil, Peru Colombia and Dominican Republic.
Cocoa output in Ecuador, which has emerged as the world's third-largest cocoa producer, is expected to rise to 500,000 tons in the year starting October, from an estimated 430,000 tons produced this year, he said.
Nacer said Ecuador is likely to take over Ghana as the world No. 2 cocoa producer.
"I would say, without any doubt, that it's going to happen in more than 4 years. It might happen earlier, but more than 4 years."
(Reporting by Naveen Thukral; Editing by Rashmi Aich)
((.thukral@thomsonreuters.com; +65-6870-3829; Reuters Messaging: .thukral.thomsonreuters.com@reuters./))