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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil, Mexico lead declines among Latam FX as commodity prices weaken
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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil, Mexico lead declines among Latam FX as commodity prices weaken

Brazilian inflation slips slightly in August

Brazil's Azul jumps after issuing FY rev forecast

Mexican peso passes 20 per dollar level

Latam stocks down 1.2%, FX slips 1%

Updated at 1950 GMT

By Johann M Cherian and Lisa Pauline Mattackal

- Most currencies and equity markets in resources-rich Latin America lost ground on Tuesday as commodity prices declined, with Brazil's real leading forex declines as investors assessed inflation data.

MSCI's index tracking regional currencies .MILA00000CUS lost 1% against the dollar, on track for its worst day since August 29. An index tracking local equity indexes .MILA00000PUS dropped 1.2% to an over one-month low.

Oil prices slumped, with Brent crude Lcoc1 falling to their lowest since December 2021 after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and the following year.

The dollar =USD strengthened 1.2% to its highest in over one week against Brazil's real BRL=, as prices of iron ore and oil took a hit. MET/L

Data showed consumer prices in the region's biggest economy fell marginally in August, coming in slightly below market expectations, but traders stuck to bets on a 25 basis points rate hike later in the month. 0#BCBWATCH

"We expect the Copom to validate a moderate relatively short rate hiking cycle, starting with a 25 bps hike at the September 18 meeting," said Goldman Sachs' Alberto Ramos, he expects the round of Brazilian rate cuts to begin in June 2025 meeting rather than July 2025 as previously forecast.

Elsewhere, Mexico's peso MXN= weakened 1%, hovering two-year lows and weakening past the 20 per dollar level. Colombia's peso COP= depreciated 0.9% to hit its lowest since October 2023.

Copper exporter Chile's currency CLP= slipped 0.5% as copper prices retreated on persistent worries about the economic health of top importer China. MET/L

Markets were on edge ahead of a key U.S. inflation print that will help investors assess whether the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut rates by 25 basis points or a larger 50 bps.

U.S. rate cuts would ease some pressure on emerging market central banks, which have struggled to balance economic growth worries with preventing runaway inflation and shoring up declining currencies.

Currencies of major economies in Latin America are on track for declines year-to-date.

"The start of the Fed easing cycle is likely to allow for a broadening on the emerging market cutting cycle," Ramos said.

Investors also awaited the first debate between U.S. presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris for more clarity on what either's presidency could mean for global markets.

Brazil's Bovespa .BVSP shed 0.2%, with oil giant Petrobras PETR4.SA down 1.5%.

On the other hand, Azul AZUL4.SA jumped 4.7% after the airline said it expects its annual revenue to increase 7% from last year.

Argentina's MerVal index .MERV dropped 1.3% ahead of the release of its August inflation data.


HIGHLIGHTS

** Petroperu's board offers to resign as financial crisis lingers

** Colombian government proposes fiscal reform to raise extra $2.84 bln

** Argentina sees energy investment reaching $15 bln year, fueled by deregulation

** Chilean central bank is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points

Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies:

Equities

Latest

Daily % change

MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF

1062.74

-0.07

MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS

2171.13

-1.20

Brazil Bovespa .BVSP

134457.94

-0.21

Mexico IPC .MXX

51027

-0.21

Chile IPSA .SPIPSA

6214.95

-0.28

Argentina Merval .MERV

1715641.62

-1.318

Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP

1313.66

-0.61




Currencies

Latest

Daily % change

Brazil real BRL=

5.6542

-1.25

Mexico peso MXN=

20.0794

-1

Chile peso CLP=

948.84

-0.48

Colombia peso COP=

4280.34

-0.92

Peru sol PEN=

3.7902

0.23

Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL

957

0.104493208

Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB=

1260

0.793650794



(Reporting by Johann M Cherian and Lisa Mattackal in Bengaluru; Editing by Alistair Bell)

((johann.mcherian@thomsonreuters.com;))

Disclaimer:This article represents the opinion of the author only. It does not represent the opinion of Webull, nor should it be viewed as an indication that Webull either agrees with or confirms the truthfulness or accuracy of the information. It should not be considered as investment advice from Webull or anyone else, nor should it be used as the basis of any investment decision.
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